Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Forget Seasonally Adjusted Numbers - Give us the raw data

For a month or so before Christmas, businesses hire part time work, strictly for the season. And they let the vast majority of them go after January (keeping them on for that month to deal with the rush of returns, etc.)

So the employment numbers of January, "seasonally adjusted" - what does that even mean? Are they adjusted to not show temporary employees, or are they adjusted to show temporary employees?

This is the problem with statistics - and with the way statistics are reported. They can be massaged, and reworked, and reported to send any message wanted - whether or not it is the true message.

RUSH: Now, I want to wrap up some things. I mentioned in the first hour of the program that we've been tracking, as best we can, the amount of money that the Treasury department is collecting in payroll tax withholding. Because they had this major discrepancy in the raw data. From December to January, we lost 2.5 million jobs. We lost 2.5 million jobs December to January, and 1.2 million of those the regime just erased. They no longer exist. That's the labor force participation rate. So I saw something that said the Treasury department had collected less money in payroll tax beholding. Okay, well, if that's true then it would argue against any new jobs. How can you take in less money on payroll tax withholding if you've got brand-new jobs?

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