How Can Obama's Approval Numbers Be Up?

Of course, these polls are so skewed. They talk to who they want to talk to to get the results they want.

Rush spares only a couple of sentences for this:

RUSH: Well, the Gallup poll says Obama's approval numbers have jumped four points, 43 to 47. Don't worry about it, folks, it always happens: Obama leaves the country, and the approval numbers go up. The further away he is from Washington, the happier people are.

That's rather a blithe dismissal of the fact that Obama has gained 4 approval points. It's hardly because he's left the country - unless it was taken after news that he's signed $10 billion trade deals with India which people think means money and jobs are going to be coming here instead of the other way around.

Here's what the Gallup article said:

Any of several political and economic events in the news since late last week could account for the slight improvement. Obama made a post-election speech last Wednesday in which he struck a mostly conciliatory tone, stocks rallied late in the week to their highest levels since September 2008, partly spurred by Thursday's better-than-expected jobs report, and Obama's 10-day diplomatic tour of Asia began with a much-publicized state visit to India.

"Despite the uptick in approval for the president in the last few days, Obama's average approval rating for the week ending Nov. 7 is 45%, identical to his average for all of October."While the increase in Obama's job approval rating since the election is small in absolute terms, the fact that it is up at all after his party's major congressional and gubernatorial losses is notable. According to Gallup trends, former Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush saw their job approval ratings decline after their parties' midterm election losses in 1994 and 2006, respectively.

Bush's approval fell from 38% in Gallup polling conducted Nov. 2-5, 2006, to 33% in less than a week. Clinton's approval rating also declined after the 1994 midterms, though the roughly four-week lag between the two Gallup surveys spanning that election make the connection between the election outcome and the decline less clear.

Despite the uptick in approval for the president in the last few days, Obama's average approval rating for the week ending Nov. 7 is 45%, identical to his average for all of October.

Support for Obama in the first week in November among various demographic and political subgroups is very much in line with where it was during October. He receives widespread approval from blacks (88% approve) and Democrats (81%) as well as majority support from Hispanics (63%), adults aged 18 to 29 (54%), and those living in low-income households (53%). By 49% to 41%, he also receives higher support from women than men.

Bottom Line

At 45%, President Obama's latest weekly approval rating is essentially the same as it has been in recent weeks. However, his ratings in the second half of the week are up slightly over those conducted in the first half, spanning the election. If sustained over the next few days, this would buck the pattern seen for recent presidents whose parties suffered major midterm losses. Whether the increase in approval for Obama is sustained may depend in part on its cause. If the increase was spurred by the stock market rally or Obama's foreign trip, it's likely to revert to where it was before rather quickly. If it is based on reactions to the positions Obama has taken in the aftermath of last Tuesday's elections, it could remain near 47% for a longer period of time.